Wednesday, March 26, 2008

2008 Baseball and My Humble Predictions

I would just like to say that I am very, very, very excited for the baseball season to start. What's that you say? It has started? How could I have missed it....? The only way would have been if the games started at 6 in the morning on a weekday. Oh, that's what happened...gotcha.

The truth of the matter is I actually got up quite early to catch the early games of the 2008 MLB Season featuring the Red Sox and A's from Japan. And yeah, it was not the Yankees, but it was professional baseball, and that was a step in the right direction for sure. Of course, the season has not yet completely started, that begins on Sunday night with the Braves and the Nationals clashing at the Nationals new stadium in Washington, DC (which is where I am this semester, and yes, for all of you concerned, I WILL be going, it's going to be sweet.) Nevertheless, with the start of the baseball season less than a week away, I figured, being a huge baseball fan, I should look into the season and try and use what I know, to, you know, predict the results. We are smack in the middle of March Madness, so we're all in the predicting mood of course. By the way, is the end of March one of the greatest times to be a sports fan or what? You have March Madness, obviously, and that's exciting, you have the start of Major League Baseball, the Masters is only a short time away, and if you care about the NBA and the NHL, those seasons are winding down with playoff battles. Plus, if you are a soccer, or futbol fan, you have the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League coming up. That sounds like quite the collection of sporting events.

Anyway, let me get to my predictions. Granted I do not have a complex way of doing this like those at Baseball Reference and their PECOTA, or CAIRO, or ZIPS, or any of the other fancy things. Don't get me wrong, I really do think those things are valuable and really help us look at statistics and find out who is the best player. Plus, they are often right, which is cool. Nevertheless I'm going to make my predictions using my noggin. I'll start with the NL.

NL East
The NL East is going to be very interesting. The teams within it improved (except for the Marlins and Nationals of course, so 3 out of 5 improved...). The Phillies will be looking to win their second straight division title, the Mets will be looking to rebound from that tremendous, historic and downright hysterical collapse last year, and the Braves will be looking to climb back to the top. Here is what I think will happen:

Mets: although I hate the Mets, it is pretty hard to discount them at this point. Adding Johan Santana was really a big deal, and is really going to benefit them, adding a true ace to the top of their rotation. You put Pedro in their, and add Perez and El Duque on the back end of the rotation and you have quite the team. Plus, they have a pretty good lineup with Beltran, Wright and Reyes anchoring it. I see the Mets rebounding to take the division.
Phillies: The Phillies are good, and they will probably win the Wild Card, I can tell you that much, and they will mash, for sure, especially in that ballpark. The thing is I think the Mets added more quality players (see, Santana, Johan) in the offseason and that put them over the top. The Phillies are solid, with some pretty good starters (Cole Hamels for sure) and a very good lineup, as I mentioned. I just think they'll come up a tad short.
Braves: They'll be good, but not good enough. Adding Glavine felt like a nostalgic thing, I don't know how effective he can still be. Sure, they have some pretty good hitters in Franceour, Teixiera, Chipper of course and McCann but it looks as though they won't quite match up to the others as well. They certainly could compete for the Wild Card, but not for the title.
Nationals: Well...they have a new stadium this year...I guess that's pretty cool. They have some young talent, especially with Zimmerman at third. And Manny Acta is one of the more forward-thinking managers in the game, which is really cool. But they just don't have enough talent to compete, but they'll be better than the Marlins.
Marlins: Problem: they no longer employ Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis...Result: badness. I think that pretty much does it. Sure, Willis was not good last year, but Cabrera was...it's going to be a rough year.

NL Central
I'm pretty sure the Cubs are the team to beat in the NL Central. I think the Cardinals will be ok, but the health questions regarding Pujols should be on the mind of LaRussa as he tries to manage the team. And we've been hearing about the young Brew-Crew for a while now, but they have really yet to show us their full ability. They did a little last year...how about this year?

Cubs: I just think the Cubs are set for this year. A pretty good offense and with Lilly and Zambrano at the top of their rotation, I think they're set to lead the way in the NL Central. Their bullpen is pretty good too, with Kerry Wood at the back end. Can he stay healthy? I don't know, but if he can't, Ryan Dempster is waiting in the wings, and that's not bad. Soriano, Derrick Lee and Aramis Ramirez look to anchor a pretty strong lineup.
Brewers: I'm going to go out on a limb and put the Brewers here. They have a lot of good young players like Braun, Prince, obviously, JJ Hardy and Bill Hall. And with Gallardo and Sheets anchoring the rotation, I think they should rack up a fair amount of wins. I just think they're one, or two key players away from really reaching their full potential.
Cardinals: I guess I would have to put the Cards here cause of LaRussa, but if Pujols is really as hurt as they say, this is going to be a lost season, and that is that. If Pujols plays, they'll be mediocre. The addition of Glaus was interesting to say the least, they traded one oft-injured third baseman (Rolen) for another. Will he dominate? Maybe, but it won't be enough.
Astros: They have some good players, Oswalt, Lee and Hunter Pence, but they don't have enough good players.
Reds: Dusty Baker is NOT the answer. Harang might be, so might Arroyo, but they started pretty strongly last year, but folded, I would expect the same thing.
Pirates: Seriously?

NL West
Last year the D'Backs surprised everyone by playing EXTREMELY well and winning the division, but the bigger surprise came from the Rockies who went on a torrid pace down the stretch and were able to capture the Wild Card, and the Pennant only to be congratulated by getting royally dominated by the Red Sox. This division is going to be very interesting cause there are three pretty talented teams, the D'Backs, Dodgers and Padres, one mediocre team with a powerful offense, Rockies, and arguably the worst team in baseball, the Giants.

Dodgers: Well, I think Joe Torre, despite what people think, will make a difference. This team was very talented last year, but still underachieved and found themselves outside, looking in, in regards to the playoff picture. I think they have the talent to win the NL West with some very good young players like Russel Martin and other good young position players. Plus, their pitching staff with Penny is going to be pretty solid and their bullpen is anchored by Takashi Saito, and he's not a bad guy to have back there.
D'Backs: The addition of Danny Haren to accompany Brandon Webb at the top of the rotation was huge. I really think these two teams are almost interchangeable at the top. The lineup for the D'Backs is quite solid with Byrnes and Upton and some other pretty good hitters, but it's that rotation that really looks good. Those two could win the division for the D'Backs themselves.
Padres: Good pitching with Jake Peavy but a lineup held up on some old legs (Edmonds and Giles) in a HUGE ballpark. I just don't think they have enough. It looks as if one of the greatest closers ever, Trevor Hoffman, will really not get another chance to win that ring.
Rockies: They have an awesome offense. Don't get me wrong. With Holliday, Hawpe, Tulowitzki and company, they are going to score some runs. Unfortunately they play in Coors Field and Jeff Francis is their best pitcher...that's not going to cut it. Last year was fun, but it was last year.
Giants: They are terrible. Even a good year by Zito, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain will not save this team. They aren't going to score any runs, terrible offense

That's all for right now. I have some work to do, so I'll get to the American League and my playoff projections later. I just think this year is going to be a LOT of fun.

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